Saturday, October 21, 2017

2017 NPB Draft: How should the Lions approach it?


The 2017 NPB Draft is on October 26 and all attention will shift towards it when the day comes. Even the teams who will be in the Japan Series will need to turn their attention to the draft for one night.

As a reminder, the first round is a free for all where everyone selects who they want and if anyone wants the same player, they draw for his rights with a winning ticket out of a box. Teams that miss on their player will go again until all 12 teams have their first round selection. The record for most teams wanting one player is eight.


Hideo Nomo was one of the two instances where this happened while the other was Hideo Koike in 1990. A video of the first round in 1989 is here below.


 Most recently, the 2016 first round can be seen here.


For the record, the representative for each team is chosen at the team's discretion. Sometimes it's the manager, other times it could be an executive, GM equivalent or even a scout. 

From the second round and on, the draft order is like a traditional one where the worst team of one league goes first, then it reverses to the worst of the opposite league then flops back to the second worst of the original in a snake format. The Pacific League won the regular season head-to-head series again, so they will select first.

Here is how the draft order will look in the second round, while the odd rounds will be this list in reverse:

1. Chiba Lotte Marines (Pacific League, 6th place)
2. Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Central League, 6th place)
3. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (PL, 5th)
4. Chunichi Dragons (CL, 5th)
5. Orix Buffaloes (PL, 4th)
6. Yomiuri Giants (CL, 4th)
7. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles (PL, 3rd)
8. Yokohama DeNA Baystars (CL, 3rd)
9. Saitama Seibu Lions (PL, 2nd)
10. Hanshin Tigers (CL, 2nd)
11. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (PL, 1st)
12. Hiroshima Carp (PL, 1st)

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For the Lions, they could go in many directions this year. Here is a breakdown of each position: 

Pitcher:

The Lions have openly said they're interested in reinforcing their pitching depth. Last year, they didn't take a left handed pitcher and only took four right handers. Two pitchers have first round potential, but none other than Daiki Tajima out of the industrial league's JR East is the consensus pitcher everyone likes. Kohei Miyadai out of the Tokyo University, from the Tokyo Big6 league is also an intriguing option among lefties. 

Right handed pitchers Ryota Kusuba, Sho Yamaguchi, Hiroki Kondo, Keiichi Okada and Masaki Tanigawa are all names that have been linked. Yamaguchi is the only high school pitcher among the bunch while Tanigawa and Okada are industrial league pitchers. Okada is a side arm pitcher as well. Kondo and Kusuba are both from University.

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Catcher:

On paper, the Lions don't need a catcher immediately, but Ginjiro Sumitani could exercise his international free agent option if he wants. Masatoshi Okada is a spell catcher while Tomoya Mori has been behind the plate part time. With Tatsuyuki Uemoto retiring, there is room for one.

The Lions have been linked to two catchers where one of them is expected to be a first round pick. Shosei Nakamura broke Kazuhiro Kiyohara's single Koshien home run record and carried his high school through the tournament. He is considered to be very athletic and at least one team will go for him. Munetaka Murakami is another high school fall back option, but can't be an immediate contributor.

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Infielder:

With the Lions drafting Sosuke Genda, they won't be hungry for a shortstop anytime soon. However, third base could be a hole with Takeya "Okawari-kun" not getting any younger and he's also a pending free agent. Finding a corner infielder wouldn't hurt.

Hisanori Yasuda out of Riseisha high school is one of the most touted at his position. He could be a fallback option if the Lions miss out on a drawing. The most intriguing infielder of this draft class is Kotaro Kiyomiya, who has been hyped up for several years. Many thought he would choose to follow his family's path of going to university, but he shocked the baseball world by making himself eligible for the NPB draft.

Kiyomiya is consensus "best player" in this year's class and it wouldn't be surprising if nine teams go for him, which would surpass the record. His bat is supposed to be the best in the game, but he isn't as athletic as other position players and would be at 1B.

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Outfielder:

The Lions don't have a power hitting outfielder, though Shogo Akiyama had a magical 25 home run season as the team's CF. Two corporate league outfielders in Toshio Kitagawa and Seigo Yada are who the Lions are linked to with the former having the ability to play catcher. Having a solidified fourth outfielder wouldn't hurt, but the Lions are set at defensive replacement.

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Outlook:

The Lions are set when it comes to position players for 2018. However, it never hurts to add someone who can help immediately. They won't be playing every game like Sosuke Genda, but having an extra infielder or outfielder? It won't cause a problem.

Currently, the Lions are contemplating between Kiyomiya or a pitcher with their first round pick. We're guessing they want a pitcher for the now, rather than a high schooler if it's in the first round. There has not been an announcement at the time of this writing, so the longer this goes, the more we think they don't go for Kiyomiya. 

Hisanobu "Nabe-Q" Watanabe said the team will make a decision on October 25, the day before the draft. Nabe-Q was the man who drew the winning tickets for Yusei Kikuchi in 2009 and Tatsuya Oishi in 2010. His nickname is "hand of god" for his success in a six-team drawing for back-to-back years.

Are the Lions feeling lucky or are they not? Tajima will likely get a drawing as well, but not as many teams involved. It was already announced that the Orix Buffaloes will go for Tajima.

The last time the Lions went to a drawing was 2012, where they lost a three-way draw for Nao Higashihama. Does that drought end? They've taken Tomoya Mori, Kona Takahashi, Shinsaburo Tawata and Tastsuya Imai unopposed. This is tied with Orix for the longest drought without a drawing in the draft. They definitely need at least one left handed pitcher at minimum.

Kiyomiya will likely have at least six teams selecting him while Tajima should have three at minimum. If the Lions went for Kiyomiya, the winning ticket might have already been drawn as they'll be one of the last to select. However, he's still talented enough to make an attempt.

Miyadai and Yasuda would not be bad options if the Lions wanted to go rogue and buck any prognosticators. There are currently 10 open spots on the roster with 7 senryokugai players, while it was also announced that Stephen Fife, Frank Garces and Alexis Candelario wouldn't be coming back. Candelario was released before the regular season ended.

With the roster space, they could easily draft seven players. I'd expect a six man class at the smallest due to the recent cuts. I would not be surprised if they take at least four or five pitchers with one or two position players at most. My gut says Tajima will be the selection, but they could surprise and feel lucky enough to go for Kiyomiya.

Anything can happen unless we see the Lions make a public announcement like they did with Tawata in the past. A post-draft article will come when the time comes. Stay tuned, this should be interesting how the long term future could be.

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